Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Bruno Lopes
UFC Fight Night · August 8, 2026 · Meta Apex
OddsDiyar Nurgozhay -168·Bruno Lopes +128(DraftKings)
Both men have a clear kill condition: Lopes needs this on the mat, Nurgozhay needs it standing. Lopes' takedown accuracy sits at just 22 percent, and Nurgozhay defends takedowns well, which means long stretches of striking exchanges - the worst possible place for a fighter who has been stopped by strikes three times. Nurgozhay's power and accuracy should find the mark before Lopes finds a grip. Nurgozhay by knockout inside two rounds, as long as he stays disciplined in the scrambles.
The Matchup
The styles here point in opposite directions. Nurgozhay is the sharper, more powerful striker - but both of his losses came by submission, and grappling is exactly where Lopes is most dangerous with his jiu-jitsu black belt and five career submission wins. Flip it around and Lopes has been knocked out in all three of his losses, including two of his last three fights, while Nurgozhay owns knockout power and 59 percent striking accuracy. Whoever forces the fight into his world almost certainly wins it. Nurgozhay's 80 percent takedown defense may be the single most important number in the matchup.
Tale of the Tape
| Diyar Nurgozhay | Bruno Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2 | Record | 14-3 |
| 29 | Age | 33 |
| 6'2" | Height | 6'2" |
| 74" | Reach | 74.5" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| Kazakhstan | Country | Brazil |
| Tobet Top Team | Team | — |
The Numbers
Career UFC averages. Red bar = statistical edge.
Diyar Nurgozhay
Diyar Nurgozhay is a Kazakh light heavyweight who came up through Eagle FC, where he became the promotion's first Kazakh champion at 205 pounds, before punching his UFC ticket with a head-kick knockout on the 2024 Contender Series. A decorated pankration world champion, he hits with real power from the southpaw side and lands nearly 60 percent of his strikes. His UFC start was a shock - back-to-back submission losses - but he steadied the ship with a clear decision win over Rafael Tobias in March. At 29, this is his chance to build his first UFC winning streak.
- WRafael Tobias · Decision (unanimous)UFC 326 · March 7, 2026
- LUran Satybaldiev · Submission (Ezekiel choke)UFC Fight Night · August 23, 2025
- LBrendson Ribeiro · Submission (kimura)UFC Fight Night · March 15, 2025
Bruno Lopes
“The Brazilian Cowboy”
Bruno Lopes has one of the stranger backstories in the UFC: he retired from MMA in 2015, spent years working as a horse farrier in the Brazilian countryside, then came back in 2021 and won the LFA light heavyweight title. He holds black belts in both jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai, with 11 of his 14 wins coming by finish. He won his UFC debut against previously unbeaten Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, but has since been knocked out by Dustin Jacoby and Navajo Stirling. All three of his career losses have come by KO/TKO, and at 33 he is fighting to save his UFC run.
- LNavajo Stirling · KO/TKOUFC Fight Night · March 28, 2026
- LDustin Jacoby · KO/TKOUFC Fight Night · May 31, 2025
- WMagomed Gadzhiyasulov · Decision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night · January 11, 2025